A New Possibility – An Exciting Future Shaping Our Present

As Well as Forecasting From the Past – Backcast From the Future 

Backcasting starts from the future. A future, though not yet realized, lives nonetheless in imagination, in aspiration, in vision. It lives with all the reality and concreteness of an architect's blueprints and models of a future cityscape. Time has to pass, work has to be done, this backcast future is here, in the now, shaping actions and outcomes.

A backcast future, in the moments of creation, is one in which leaders scan the accomplishments of their enterprise in the future with satisfaction, with a sense of, "WOW! We did it, we pulled off an amazing transformation of our business and our industry. And, we have a sustainable, almost unstoppable, momentum. We have created an organization of excited, energetic and aligned people and a host of supportive collaborators". 

The process of backcasting in a process of remembering – remembering what happened and when it happened? What were the key accomplishments, milestone by milestone? Who were the heroes, the people who made audacious promises and produced breakthrough results? What were the setbacks and how did we deal with them? And so on into ever more granular detail till the whole pathway that led to the future is remembered.

As in any remembering of the past there will be different recollections, people will remember things differently. However, there is no doubt though – we did get to here, from there – about that there is no disagreement.

That was the journey of remembering is one in which I guide senior leaders through so they end up with a clearly articulated, and aligned on future for the enterprise and the pathway that got them there.

So How Does Forecasting and Backcasting Work Together?

Forecasting is our best shot at predicting what the future will look like, informed by the past – the enterprise's past, the industry's past, the economy's past, .... 

Forecasting is an essential tool. It is useful to know where we are and where we are headed if we stay on our current trajectory. 

Backcasting however, starts with the future, with realized vision, aspiration and intention as the context. A future arrived at unconstrained by circumstances, or limited feasibility [feasability is a past-based viewpoint anyway]. A future the leaders really, really, really want – not a pipe-dream. This is a future that was arrived at by creativity, out-of-the-box thinking and action, and by the thoughtful work of dedicated and committed people.

Mapping the forecast future onto the backcast future clearly shows the scale of the breakthroughs that were accomplished in making the backcast future real.

Using forecasting to support backcasting:

• Gives a way to think about present day reality – if we don't change course this is where we are headed – this is what we can expect qualitatively and quantitatively
• Shows clearly the scale of the breakthroughs that were accomplished on the way to realizing the future leaders really wanted – we could not have gotten here with more or better of our practices of a few years ago
• Shows, milestone by milestone, the problems that were solved, the projects that were taken on, the systems that got changed, the processes that got put in place, the accomplishments that were achieved...
• Shows where and how behaviors and practices got altered, where new accountabilities were established, where new ways of relating, collaborating and working showed up, who and where the heroes were...
• Shows too where breakdowns happened – stuff happened, it wasn't all plain sailing – and it shows where new approaches and solutions were invented turning breakdowns into breakthroughs...

Standing in the present: backcasting provides the context for inventing, generating and discovering – forecasting shows us the scale of breakthroughs that are needed and the timing in which they need to happened. The gap between the forecast and the backcast is the context in which leaders, visionary leaders, lead their organizations – these are leaders who are shaped by a future they really, really, really want, not circumscribed or constrained by predictions from the past.

Backcasting and forecasting – the two together are THE essential drivers of innovation, and THE context for a sustainable transformation of the enterprise – its culture, its strategies and its architecture, and its role in the larger network of relationships that make it a viable business.

A Leader's Primary Focus – Creating a Sustainable Future for the Enterprise

The Past Shapes Our Present

Over the years forecasting has been the dominant methodology to determine [predict really] what the future of an organization will look like. After forecasting all the possible scenarios a path forward is chosen – the future strategy of the enterprise. 

The strategy is designed to shape future actions, so as to produce the predicted/forecast future. It is a strategy that can be defended with facts, and supported with a credible logic. In this model it is valid, even necessary, to show how the activities and events of the past have given us our present. And, equally valid to show all the options that were considered in deciding on a most likely scenario for a future.

For a forecast model of the future to be supportable with financial investments and other resource allocations it has to pass the "reasonable, feasible, doable" test – we have to be able to say: we have the know-how, we have the resources [or can get them], we know the territory, we have the reputation, credibility and relationships to execute the strategy. 

So we are set, right?  Just execute the strategy, right? Well not quite. 

So what about "the vision thing"? Lou Gerstner is quoted as saying [talking about IBM as its new CEO] that, "the last thing IBM needs right now is a vision… What IBM needs right now is a series of very tough-minded, market driven, highly effective strategies for each of its businesses – strategies that deliver performance in the marketplace and shareholder value”. 

Yet most leaders will readily confess [as Gerstner did] that they want more for their enterprise than the best case scenario forecasts and good past-based execution. Essential though that is, it is not sufficient to unleash the creativity, imagination and passion of the people of the enterprise and create a sustainable business. 

People need an audacious future to live into so as to unleash their genius. That is what inspires us and gives us the "juice" to innovate – no compelling future no breakthroughs, no genius, except by luck. We just have to settle for business as usual.

In my next post I will look at another possibility – creating an exciting future to shape our present.

Backcasting: A Process and a Way of Thinking and Leading

First there's Forecasting: the Process of Predicting a Likely Future

We are all familiar with the process of forecasting. Basically, it is a process, and way of thinking and leading to predict a likely future.

To forecast, we stand in the present and look to the organization's past – what has been accomplished: are we growing or contracting? What skills and competencies do we have, what resources are at our disposal, where have we succeeded and where have we failed, what is happening in our market with customers and competitors, are our products and services competitive, do we have anything innovative to offer that will alter the trajectory of the past going forward?

Then, informed by the past, we make a series of assessments about what the likely future will look like – the most likely case supported by data and analysis of risks and opportunities. The culmination of the forecasting process is choosing a strategy to organize actions and allocate resources so as to realize the forecast.

The value of forecasting is that it provides a grounded assessment about what is likely and what is possible based on past experience. It provides a context for management, prediction and control. It provides the basis for continuous improvement using tools like six sigma, scenario planning, financial modeling, and so on.

The limitations of forecasting: is that it is past based – it relies on experience and knowledge of the past. The strength of forecasting can quickly become its weakness in any effort to create rapid and discontinuous growth: the reliance on data, on analysis, on agreement about what's feasible, and on certainty about the organization's ability to deliver. 

Audacious plans are often shelved because the data doesn't support them. So a subtext of forecasting in be reasonable, be predictable and be close to certain – or at least within defined limits. 

Then there is Backcasting: the Process of Creating a Desired Future

Backcasting basically, is a process, a way of thinking, a way of Being and a way of leading to create a desired future.

The context for backcasting is an experience that leaders and members of an organization have of a possibility for the future beyond what is currently being achieved by the organization. A desire even to create a future for their organization that in not predictable given the past – a future they really, really, really want for their organization. 

The process of backcasting starts in the future. It is a process of remembering from a point in time looking back – what got accomplished and when, with all the nuances and detail that the collective memory of the organization can recall. It is a process of remembering the qualitative outcomes and the quantitative ones too; the successes and the failures, and the many acts of heroism that made the desired future real.

It is a rigorous process grounded in intention, vision and desire on the one hand, and also in specificity on the other hand. The roadmap back from the future is full of detail: who did what, when? And how did they do it? What was the response of the market? And so on in ever finer detail till the what happened is clear.

Next time: More about a leaders Primary Focus