Backcasting: A Process and a Way of Thinking and Leading

First there's Forecasting: the Process of Predicting a Likely Future

We are all familiar with the process of forecasting. Basically, it is a process, and way of thinking and leading to predict a likely future.

To forecast, we stand in the present and look to the organization's past – what has been accomplished: are we growing or contracting? What skills and competencies do we have, what resources are at our disposal, where have we succeeded and where have we failed, what is happening in our market with customers and competitors, are our products and services competitive, do we have anything innovative to offer that will alter the trajectory of the past going forward?

Then, informed by the past, we make a series of assessments about what the likely future will look like – the most likely case supported by data and analysis of risks and opportunities. The culmination of the forecasting process is choosing a strategy to organize actions and allocate resources so as to realize the forecast.

The value of forecasting is that it provides a grounded assessment about what is likely and what is possible based on past experience. It provides a context for management, prediction and control. It provides the basis for continuous improvement using tools like six sigma, scenario planning, financial modeling, and so on.

The limitations of forecasting: is that it is past based – it relies on experience and knowledge of the past. The strength of forecasting can quickly become its weakness in any effort to create rapid and discontinuous growth: the reliance on data, on analysis, on agreement about what's feasible, and on certainty about the organization's ability to deliver. 

Audacious plans are often shelved because the data doesn't support them. So a subtext of forecasting in be reasonable, be predictable and be close to certain – or at least within defined limits. 

Then there is Backcasting: the Process of Creating a Desired Future

Backcasting basically, is a process, a way of thinking, a way of Being and a way of leading to create a desired future.

The context for backcasting is an experience that leaders and members of an organization have of a possibility for the future beyond what is currently being achieved by the organization. A desire even to create a future for their organization that in not predictable given the past – a future they really, really, really want for their organization. 

The process of backcasting starts in the future. It is a process of remembering from a point in time looking back – what got accomplished and when, with all the nuances and detail that the collective memory of the organization can recall. It is a process of remembering the qualitative outcomes and the quantitative ones too; the successes and the failures, and the many acts of heroism that made the desired future real.

It is a rigorous process grounded in intention, vision and desire on the one hand, and also in specificity on the other hand. The roadmap back from the future is full of detail: who did what, when? And how did they do it? What was the response of the market? And so on in ever finer detail till the what happened is clear.

Next time: More about a leaders Primary Focus